Monday, November 19, 2007

NYC murder rate continues a pattern of decline years in the making.

In the last 15 years something that was thought to be impossible has been occuring in the city of new york. The rate of serious crime has been dropping to near historic lows. Chief among the crimes that have dropped in big ways are murder and rape. To give you some idea about how big a drop has occured we can look at the official crime stats. In 1990 there were 2245 murders recorded in the city of new york. By 1997 the number had dropped to 789. In 1998 the number dropped below 700 for the first time since the 1960's when the number reached 633. By 2002 the number fell below 600 when it hit 587. By 2005 it went lower still with 539 murders for that year. By 2006 the number climbed a ways and almost broke 600 again when it reached 596. 2006 broke a string of consecutive years in which the murder rate fell. That increase does not bode well for the future but still it is a serious improvement over the wild west days of the early 1990's
The numbers for rapes are similarly stunning in terms of their decline but here there has been no recent upturn. In 1997 there were 2158 rapes reported in new york city. The number has continued to decline and so by 2005 it was 1412. In 2006 the number dropped even more sharply when there were a total of 1071 rapes reported. There has been no increase in rapes in the last several years that is akin to the increase in murder that was seen between 2005 and 2006. The good news for 2007 is that the murder rate is on the decline again. This year the city is on pace to have fewer than 500 murders. So for all new yorkers It has not all just been a dream. New york is a safer place to be. At least statistically speaking anyway.

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