If you are one of those people who believes President Obama when he says that the U.S. is going to get out of Afghanistan in a year and a half you must have to do some serious wishful thinking in order to get yourself there. Consider the fact that the whole plan for an early withdrawal depends on how quickly the U.S. can raise and train the new Afghan Army. The latest plan is to increase the number from the current level of about 95,000 to about 400,000 in little more than a year. Consider some of the problems however. The U.S. is attempting to attract new recruits by raising the pay of the average Afghan soldier to about $250 a month. Even with the increase that is about $50 less a month than the average Taliban fighter gets. Out of the current Afghan force only 1 out of every 9 members is capable of reading or writing. They are basically a force of illiterate soldiers and the new recruits that are being attracted are no better. A little less than 20% test positive for drugs. The training that these new recruits are getting now is being cut from 10 weeks to 8 weeks in order to accommodate the time line for leaving in 18 months by trying to train as many soldiers as possible as quickly as possible. There are also problems with retention. Usually these newly trained soldiers return to their villages after one year and never return back to the force. The drop out rate is about 20%. There is also a big problem with corruption in Afghanistan. Many Afghan soldiers and police are often accused of demanding bribes from villagers. It is also estimated that of the current 95,000 that make up the Afghan force that about 25% of those don't really exist. Local Afghan commanders often make up names of soldiers and place them on paper to be counted in order to meet recruitment goals for which they collect additional fees and salaries. President Hamid Karzai has said himself that it is going to cost about 10 Billion dollars a year to keep and maintain this Afghan force at this size for about 20 years. Due to the fact that the Afghan government has no money the bill is going to have to be footed by the United States. With all this it seems pretty hopeful to believe that the U.S. can extricate itself from Afghanistan in a mere 18 months.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Training The Afghan Army Will Be All Up Hill For U.S.
If you are one of those people who believes President Obama when he says that the U.S. is going to get out of Afghanistan in a year and a half you must have to do some serious wishful thinking in order to get yourself there. Consider the fact that the whole plan for an early withdrawal depends on how quickly the U.S. can raise and train the new Afghan Army. The latest plan is to increase the number from the current level of about 95,000 to about 400,000 in little more than a year. Consider some of the problems however. The U.S. is attempting to attract new recruits by raising the pay of the average Afghan soldier to about $250 a month. Even with the increase that is about $50 less a month than the average Taliban fighter gets. Out of the current Afghan force only 1 out of every 9 members is capable of reading or writing. They are basically a force of illiterate soldiers and the new recruits that are being attracted are no better. A little less than 20% test positive for drugs. The training that these new recruits are getting now is being cut from 10 weeks to 8 weeks in order to accommodate the time line for leaving in 18 months by trying to train as many soldiers as possible as quickly as possible. There are also problems with retention. Usually these newly trained soldiers return to their villages after one year and never return back to the force. The drop out rate is about 20%. There is also a big problem with corruption in Afghanistan. Many Afghan soldiers and police are often accused of demanding bribes from villagers. It is also estimated that of the current 95,000 that make up the Afghan force that about 25% of those don't really exist. Local Afghan commanders often make up names of soldiers and place them on paper to be counted in order to meet recruitment goals for which they collect additional fees and salaries. President Hamid Karzai has said himself that it is going to cost about 10 Billion dollars a year to keep and maintain this Afghan force at this size for about 20 years. Due to the fact that the Afghan government has no money the bill is going to have to be footed by the United States. With all this it seems pretty hopeful to believe that the U.S. can extricate itself from Afghanistan in a mere 18 months.
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President Obama said that the slow drawdown of US troops "begins" in July 2011, as well as the transition of specific areas of Afghanistan to ANSF begins in July 2011.
In fact the transition of some parts of Afghanistan to the ANSF has already begun. The ANP manage Kabul on their own, for example.
The international community will remain deeply involved in training, funding, equipping ANSF for decades to come.
I was disappointed, however, that President Obama didn't publicly acknowledge that the ANSF will need $200 billion in international grants over the next 20 years. He should have stated this up front; and begun aggressively lobbying other countries to pay for it.
For example, the Obama administration praised Japan for promising Afghanistan another $5 billion in grants over 5 years. However, this isn't nearly enough. Its only $20 billion over 20 years if Japan provides aid at this rate. President Obama should publicly push Japan to commit to at least $40 billion in grants over 20 years; or $2 billion/year.
President Obama should demand that India and China put up $10 billion each. {India has only given the Afghans $2 billion in grants and pledges so far.}
President Obama should demand that the South Koreans increase their number of troops in Afghanistan; preferably for the NATO Training Mission-Afghanistan [NTM-A.] {The South Koreans just agreed to send another PRT and taking more responsibility for reconstruction in some safe areas.}
President Obama should also demand that the Turks substantially increase their (already significant to be sure) contribution to NTM-A.
I don't see this deep urgency in President Obama to collect international aid for Afghanistan. Part of the reason is his refusal to be straight with the American people about how much in international grants Afghanistan will need.
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