Saturday, November 8, 2008
First few years Will Likely Be Rough For Obama
It is undeniable that the euphoria that has arisen in the wake of President Elect Obama's victory on this past November 4th is Kennedy like. The country feels to me like it is taking a deep breath and a long sigh of relief and placing a good deal of hope for the future in the newly minted president. It is at this time important to remember that after his initial honeymoon period that times will begin to get rough for him. No new president escapes it. When a new administration comes in the public both hopes and expects big positive changes to occur and when they dont materialize quickly the initial joy that was expressed begins to fade into disappointment. Even the "Great Communicator" himself Ronald Reagan had these rough times. When reagan took office in 1981 the economy was in a similar state than what Obama is facing now. His policies were enacted quickly to effect changes especially after Reagan survived his assassination attempt but the results were lagging. Reagan was well into the third year of his first term and the economy had still failed to respond to his stimulus initiatives and as a result his popularity had dropped significantly. It had gotten so bad for Reagan that he privately was even considering not running for a second term because he felt he had little chance to win a victory because he was so unpopular by that point. He had to constantly give speeches urging the public to be patient and "Stay The Course." Fortunately for Reagan the economy responded just in time for the 1984 election cycle and it saved both his presidency and his legacy. This little bit of history would serve us well now to recall and help us understand that Obama faces the same situation likely. He will make changes and attempt to stimulate the economy but the fruits of these efforts will likely be years away. It is important to remember this and understand it. Even Ronald Reagan came within a few short months of just being a one term president and a presidential failure. Which of these futures is in store for Obama is something that sound policies, time, and a little bit of luck will determine.
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